The Conversation
With animosity between party supporters already at an all-time
high, buckle up for what promises to be one of the most contentious elections in
modern U.S. history.
It’s becoming increasingly possible that the nation will have a choice
between two extremes in November. On top of that, some of the candidates’ most ardent supporters continue to tear at the country’s
remaining shreds of political civility.
But even in this combative, polarized climate, some of the dislike and
distrust that citizens feel toward the other side may be misplaced. One source
of animus across party lines is stereotyping. People think that both parties –
but especially the other side – are far more socially homogeneous than they
actually are.
Assuming the extremes
In 2018, my colleague Gaurav Sood and I published the results of a survey in
which we’d asked people for their perceptions about party composition.
For example, we asked people what share of Democratic Party supporters
they thought were black. In reality, roughly a quarter of Democrats are black.
Our respondents’ average guess, though, was just over 40% – with Republicans
estimating that over 45% of Democrats are African American.
On the flip side, just 2% of Republicans earn at least US$250,000 per
year – after all, that’s roughly the economic 1%. But the average respondent
conjectured that 38% of GOP supporters earn that much. The typical Democratic
guess was near 45%.
Whether people are thinking about their own party or another, they tend
to perceive far more stereotypical Democrats and Republicans than actually
exist. But consistent with social psychology research, people see the other
party as somewhat more socially homogeneous and stereotypical.
Importantly, these gross overestimates can’t be explained by insincere
responses, the way we wrote the questions or lack of knowledge of these groups’
base rates in the overall population. We conducted a series of experiments,
detailed in our article, to rule out those possibilities. Instead, these
inaccurate views appear to genuinely reflect party stereotyping.
But, even more importantly, we conducted another experiment to see what
would happen when we cleared up these misconceptions for a randomly selected
subset of respondents. When we told Democrats, for example, that just a third
of Republicans are evangelical, or Republicans that fewer than 10% of Democrats
identify as atheist or agnostic, they reported less dislike toward the other
side than did “uncorrected” respondents. Party stereotyping thus appears to be
one source of fuel for incendiary partisanship.
People’s political stereotypes in this polarized era go beyond the
social. In a 2014 study, I found that people overestimate
ideological polarization in the mass public. Americans tend to
think that self-identified liberals hold more liberal views and self-identified
conservatives hold more conservative views than they actually do.
And here, when I corrected these misconceptions, people responded to
questions about their issue positions with preferences that were somewhat less
extreme than “uncorrected” respondents.
The implication is that polarization is, to some degree, a
self-fulfilling phenomenon. People take extreme views in part because they
think they’re living in a polarized environment.
Louder voices
Of course, this is a very polarized time – it’s just that your neighbor
who voted for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton probably isn’t as ideological or
as extreme as you might assume.
So, why do people assume these things about the other side? One reason
is that news consumers most frequently hear from those Democrats and
Republicans who are relatively extreme. Those voices appear to form the two
parties’ bases, and they’re the partisans who are most likely to attend
rallies, participate in political discussions and, more generally, to be seen
and heard.
So while it’s easy to stereotype the other side’s supporters based on a
loud, visible few, it’s worth remembering that the two groups of party
supporters are less homogeneous, less ideological, less extreme and, overall,
more alike than most of us think.
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